München (23.2.15) – Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft Deutschlands ist im Februar auf 106,8 Punkte gestiegen, von 106,7 im Vormonat. Die Zufriedenheit mit der aktuellen Lage hat etwas abgenommen. Jedoch blicken die Unternehmen erneut zuversichtlicher auf den weiteren Geschäftsverlauf. Die deutsche Wirtschaft zeigt sich robust gegenüber den geopolitischen Unsicherheiten.

Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe ist der Indikator leicht gestiegen. Zwar beurteilten die Industriefirmen ihre aktuelle Lage etwas weniger gut als im Vormonat. Aber der Ausblick für die kommenden Monate verbesserte sich auf den höchsten Stand seit August 2014. Ein wichtiger Impulsgeber bleibt das Auslandsgeschäft.

Im Großhandel hat sich das Klima minimal verschlechtert. Die Großhändler waren etwas weniger zufrieden mit ihrer aktuellen Lage. Jedoch blicken sie optimistischer auf den weiteren Geschäftsverlauf. Im Einzelhandel stieg der Index leicht. Zwar wurde die sehr gute Beurteilung zur aktuellen Lage etwas zurückgenommen. Dagegen verbesserte sich der Ausblick erneut.

Im Bauhauptgewerbe hat sich das Geschäftsklima abermals leicht verschlechtert. Der Index liegt aber weiterhin auf einem hohen Niveau. Die Baufirmen waren wieder etwas zufriedener mit ihrer aktuellen Lage. Der Ausblick auf das kommende halbe Jahr trübte sich jedoch leicht ein.

Quelle: Ifo Institut

IHS Global: German Ifo business climate increases only marginally in February as current conditions suffer mild setback

 

Frankfurt/Main (23.2.15) – In February, the headline Ifo business climate index reflecting conditions in industry, construction, and wholesale and retail trade increased for the fourth consecutive month, albeit only marginally from 106.7 to 106.8 due to the first decline in current conditions since October 2014. The index level of 106.8 significantly exceeds the long-term average of 101.3 and also remains a little above the mid-point between the starting level of the 2012/13 upward trend at 100.9 in October 2012 and its March 2014 interim high of 111.0 (last exceeded in mid-2011). The downward correction of 2014 had been of a fairly sustained nature due to the concurrence of ongoing geopolitical concerns, especially about Ukraine/Russia and the IS threat in Iraq and Syria, and emerging market problems related to the US Fed’s shift towards less expansionary monetary policy. In contrast to the duration, the extent of last year’s setback (down from 111.0 in March to 103.4 in October) was fairly moderate in a historical perspective. Thus the index had marked an historic low of 83.7 in March 2009 in the wake of the Lehman collapse and then climbed to an all-time peak of 114.2 in December 2010. Apparently, supportive global factors such as the ongoing massive oil price decline and the weakening euro have now filtered through to the bottom line at company level. The Ifo index rebound of the past four months is in line with the marked upward reversal of the ZEW index during the same period (although the latter has outperformed in terms of magnitude of the bounce) and conveys a somewhat stronger impression than only modestly improving purchasing managers (PMI) data.

 

The Ifo survey component reflecting six-month expectations increased for the fourth month in a row from 102.0 to 102.5, a level that now solidly exceeds its long-term average of 100.2. Prior to the downturn lasting throughout most of 2014 for expectations, this sub-index had hit a 35-month high of 108.3 in January 2014, which had represented the culmination point of a 16-month rebound from 94.3 in October 2012 (then the lowest level in more than three years). For comparison, the Lehman related all-time low had been 78.5 in December 2008. Meanwhile, the current conditions component encountered its first small setback after three consecutive months in which it had rebounded, although the dip from a six-month high of 111.7 to 111.3 must not be overstated. It remains noteworthy that the April-October 2014 downward correction to eventually 108.1 never undercut the interim trough of 106.4 in December 2012, not to speak of the long-term average of currently 102.6. Given further improvement of the expectations sub-index, the current conditions component should increase again next month, thus setting sights on the March 2014 two-year high of 115.6 and potentially the all-time high of 122.1 seen in June 2011.

 

Today’s separate Ifo survey release about the climate in the service sector – a series available since January 2005 – has slipped modestly, as already in January. It declined from 24.6 to 22.7, which nonetheless unwinds not even half of December’s almost 7-point spike. Unlike in January, the expectations component actually rebounded from 17.5 to 18.4, its third-highest level of the past three-and-a-half years. By contrast, current conditions fell rather markedly from 31.9 to 27.2, which broadly matches the November 2014 interim low. The last time that an even lower sub-index for service-sector current conditions was observed was in November 2013. Nevertheless, its level of 27.2 still exceeds its long-term average of 21.3, and this applies even more to service-sector expectations of 18.4 remaining well above its own long-term average of 10.2. Overall service-sector confidence had followed a sideways tendency between mid-2012 and November 2013 before breaking out to the upside around the turn of the year 2013/14 and then establishing another sideways trend at the new elevated level that remains in place at present. During the ten years of history of this service sector series, expectations have fluctuated between -24.5 (December 2008) and 25.6 (November 2010), and current conditions between -10.5 (May 2009) and 38.0 (April 2007).

 

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the main Ifo survey by sector, relating to goods production and trade, reveals only minimal changes throughout. Manufacturing and retail indices improved slightly, while construction and wholesale trade indices slipped a touch. Expectations improved in all sectors apart from construction, whereas the reverse applied to current conditions – here the only sector to show slight improvement was construction. The manufacturing sector’s fourth consecutive increase was thus driven by expectations alone, especially due to export orders (the weakening euro is increasingly making itself felt). In both retail and wholesale trade, expectations and current conditions are now broadly at their highest levels since mid-2014. The construction sector remains slightly disappointing in view of extremely favourable financing conditions at present, but recent climate indices have more or less maintained the elevated levels observed since mid-2011.

 

In view of the fact that the expectations component improved in both goods and services related sectors, February Ifo business climate data corroborates the encouraging signals of the previous three months for the near-term outlook for the German economy. The burdening factors weighing on business confidence for most of 2014 – notably the uncertainty created by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Ukraine and the Middle East and the inability of the Eurozone as a whole to embark on a meaningful economic recovery path – are increasingly being superseded by the supportive influence from large oil price and euro declines. Any tensions related to the Greek situation have seemingly only dampened the assessment of the current situation a little, whereas the outlook for the next six months remains upbeat. German GDP growth posted a surprisingly robust 0.7% q/q in the final quarter of 2014, which may be difficult to repeat in Q1, but underlying growth momentum should be around 0.5% q/q or 2% annualized now. This is being driven not only by said oil price and euro developments, but also by the persistence of extremely low short- and long-term interest rates and a consistently good competitive position in terms of relative productivity.

 

The IHS Global Insight February forecast for annual average GDP growth in 2015 is 2.0%, up from 1.6% in 2014. This refers to calendar-adjusted data – the 2015 forecast in non-adjusted terms is in fact even 2.3%. German consumer demand apparently strengthened in Q4 from an already robust 0.7% q/q in Q3 2014. Above-average performance of consumer spending will continue during 2015, fuelled by high nominal and – given near-zero inflation – real wage growth, ongoing employment gains, and extremely low interest rates that discourage saving. Our GDP growth forecast for 2016 is also 2.0%, which translates to 2.1% in non-adjusted terms.

Quelle: Timo Klein Dipl. Volkswirt/Senior Economist