Destatis: Brutto­inlands­produkt im 1. Quartal 2015 um 0,3 % gestiegen

WIESBADEN (13.5.15) – Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat ihren Wachstumskurs mit etwas abgeschwächtem Tempo fortgesetzt: Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) war im ersten Quartal 2015 – preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt – um 0,3 % höher als im vierten Quartal 2014, teilt das Statistische Bundesamt (Destatis) mit. Im Schlussquartal des vergangenen Jahres hatte es einen kräftigen Anstieg von + 0,7 % gegeben.

Positive Impulse kamen im Vorquartalsvergleich – preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt – nach vorläufigen Berechnungen vor allem aus dem Inland. Die privaten Haushalte und der Staat erhöhten ihre Konsumausgaben zum Jahresbeginn. Auch die Investitionen legten zu: Sowohl in Bauten als auch in Ausrüstungen wurde deutlich mehr investiert als im vierten Quartal 2014. Dagegen dämpfte der Außenhandel das Wirtschaftswachstum: Nach vorläufigen Berechnungen wurden zum Jahresbeginn 2015 zwar etwas mehr Waren und Dienstleistungen exportiert als im Schlussquartal 2014, die Importe stiegen aber sehr viel kräftiger.

Im Vorjahresvergleich hat sich das Wirtschaftswachstum ebenfalls erhöht: Das preisbereinigte BIP stieg im ersten Quartal 2015 um 1,1 % (kalenderbereinigt + 1,0 %).

Die Wirtschaftsleistung im ersten Quartal 2015 wurde von 42,4 Millionen Erwerbstätigen im Inland erbracht, das waren 275 000 Personen oder 0,7 % mehr als ein Jahr zuvor.

Neben der Erstberechnung des ersten Quartals 2015 hat das Statistische Bundesamt auch die bisher veröffentlichten Ergebnisse der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen für die Quartale und das Jahr 2014 überarbeitet und – soweit erforderlich – revidiert. Dabei ergaben sich für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt keine Änderungen der bisherigen Ergebnisse.

IHS Global: Germany – Surging imports restrain otherwise persistently robust German economic growth in Q1

Frankfurt/Main (13.5.15) – Based on “flash” data released by the Federal Statistics Office (FSO), German GDP increased 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) during the first quarter of 2015, less than half the 0.7% q/q pace seen in the preceding quarter. This follows (virtually unrevised) changes of 0.8% q/q in Q1, -0.1% q/q in Q2 and 0.1% q/q in Q3 2014. The weaker-than-expected outcome for Q1 2015 appears to be largely related to external trade only, specifically to import growth outpacing export growth. Domestic demand thus remains on a robust upward path, notwithstanding mounting uncertainty in recent months about Greece’s future in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, April’s 2.1% IHS forecast for (calendar-adjusted) growth in 2015 thus needs to be revised downward to 1.8%.

Based on the calendar and seasonally adjusted series, the year-on-year rate, which had reached an interim peak of 2.3% y/y in Q1 2014, has now slipped once more from 1.5% in Q4 2014 to 1.0% in Q1. This is largely due to the base effect of a weather-related spike in output a year earlier in Q1 2014. Unadjusted for working-day discrepancies, year-on-year growth has declined from 2.6% in Q1 2014 to 1.1% in Q1 2014. Keep in mind that there is a fairly large positive calendar effect of 0.25% in 2015 as a whole, whereas a calendar effect was virtually absent in 2014 and negative calendar effects had dampened growth by between 0.1% and 0.2% during the period 2011-2013.

Today’s “flash” release for the first quarter as usual encompassed only data for the overall GDP aggregate and not the individual components. The latter will only be made available on 22 May. The Federal Statistics Office (FSO) as the releasing agency has nonetheless provided some important guidance in qualitative form. Domestic demand remained strong, with all key components contributing. The FSO states that both private and public consumption increased, adding that investment in construction and investment in equipment were both „markedly“ higher than in Q4 2014. This generally confirms what had been expected in view of the lower average oil price level in Q1 relative to Q4, persistently improving labour market conditions, and softening inflation, all of which boosted consumers‘ purchasing power. The indication that investment, which had already surprised positively in Q4, appears to have gained additional momentum is particularly encouraging. This may have been helped by easier financing conditions due to the further decline in long-term interest rates in connection with the launch of Quantitative Easing by the European Central Bank (ECB), but the critical factor for this positive development was probably receding concerns about any unsettling economic effects either from geopolitical crises (Ukraine/Russia, Iraq/Syria) or the stand-off of Greece with its creditors. Pent-up building demand is increasingly making itself felt, fuelled in part by rising immigration flows.

Unlike domestic demand, external demand had a net dampening effect on Germany’s GDP growth numbers in Q1. Although exports on their own did grow anew – as in all quarters but two since mid-2009 – imports apparently gained much more strongly. This shows that the German economy is now starting to give its trading partners additional impulses, notably its Eurozone partners. This had already been indicated by monthly customs trade numbers, with March imports having been particularly robust. By contrast, export volumes had dipped markedly in January, which dragged down the quarterly average despite fresh increases in February and March. Although the FSO is not overly specific about the magnitude of the impact of net trade on GDP growth, the choice of words („somewhat greater exports than in Q4“, „imports rising much more strongly“) points to a burden of at least -0.3%, more likely around -0.5%. That being said, the fact that German external trade flows have both continued to increase in recent months underlines that global trade growth seems to be gradually picking up momentum again, despite lingering problems in major emerging economies such as Brazil or China. The additional marked weakening of the euro between the start of 2015 and mid-March will only unfold its full stimulating impact on exports in the second and third quarters of the year.

Overall, first-quarter GDP data does not alter the general economic outlook despite the weaker-than-expected headline number. Looking jointly at Q4 and Q1, the underlying growth pace at present is roughly 2%. Leading indicators (PMI, Ifo, ZEW) have maintained their recovery in recent months, although PMI and the ZEW expectations indices encountered slight setbacks in April. The combination of much lower oil prices than a year ago, an increasingly competitive euro, the ECB’s launch of a Quantitative Easing program, and an improving Eurozone environment provides significant support to this economic recovery. Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about Greece are restraining growth momentum only modestly against this background. Indeed, the rebound of inflation since February points in the same direction. Germany exports and imports will both grow in a robust manner during 2015, as exports benefit from strengthening global trade and concurrent euro depreciation alongside largely undiminished competitiveness, while imports are increasingly being boosted by domestic demand momentum. Net exports may on balance weigh on GDP slightly in 2015, keeping in mind that existing large trade surpluses mean that export levels are much higher than import levels, necessitating much higher import than export growth in order to lead to a diminishing trade surplus and thus a burden on GDP  growth. Domestically, with German interest rates remaining extremely low, the German consumer enjoying high real income growth, and international pressure as well as fiscal surpluses giving the German government an incentive to boost infrastructure investment, demand will rather strengthen further during the next few quarters. Even a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone – noting that, as before, this is not our baseline scenario – would not now derail this economic upswing.

Prior to today’s Q1 GDP data, IHS had forecast German real GDP growth at 2.1% for 2015. Due to the importance of Q1 data for the annual average, this now needs to be toned down to 1.8%. Nevertheless, not only does this translate to 2.0% if left unadjusted for positive working-day effects (thus still exceeding the German government’s latest official forecast of 1.8%), but our forecast for 2016 can be left at 2.2% (equal to 2.3% in unadjusted terms).

Timo Klein Dipl. Volkswirt / Senior Economist