ifo Geschäftsklimaindex gesunken

 

München (24.6.15) – Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft Deutschlands ist im Juni  auf 107,4 Punkte gesunken, von 108,5 im Vormonat. Der Indikator der Geschäftslage ging zurück nach drei Anstiegen in Folge. Die Erwartungen trübten sich zum dritten Mal ein und waren mehrheitlich nur noch leicht optimistisch. Die Aussichten für die deutsche Wirtschaft sind gedämpft.

Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe verschlechterte sich das Geschäftsklima merklich. Nach dem Jahreshöchststand im Vormonat gab die sehr gute Lageeinschätzung etwas nach. Mit Blick auf die kommenden Monate trübten sich die Geschäftserwartungen ein. Die Produktion soll weiter ausgeweitet werden, jedoch weniger stark als zuletzt.

Im Großhandel ist der Index gesunken. Dies war auf deutlich weniger optimistische Geschäftserwartungen zurückzuführen. Die aktuelle Lage wurde von den Großhändlern hingegen besser beurteilt. Im Einzelhandel gab der Klimaindikator nach. Die Einzelhändler waren sowohl mit ihrer aktuellen Lage als auch mit den Aussichten etwas weniger zufrieden als im Vormonat.

Im Bauhauptgewerbe hat sich das Geschäftsklima das dritte Mal in Folge verbessert. Während die Einschätzungen zur aktuellen Lage etwas nachgaben, hellten sich die Erwartungen merklich auf.

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IHS Global: German Ifo business climate index in June posts largest monthly decline since last October but upswing still intact

 Frankfurt/Main (24.6.15) – In June, the headline Ifo business climate index reflecting conditions in industry, construction, and wholesale and retail trade declined from 108.5 to 107.4, the largest downward correction since October 2014. Both current conditions and the expectations component contributed in roughly equal measure. The overall index level of 107.4 still exceeds the levels observed between August 2014 and February 2015, not to mention the long-term average of 101.4, and remains relatively close to its February 2014 interim high of 110.9. It also compares favourably to the October 2014 low of 103.6. The downward correction of 2014 had been of a fairly sustained nature due to the concurrence of ongoing geopolitical concerns, especially about Ukraine/Russia and the IS threat in Iraq and Syria, and emerging market problems related to the US Fed’s shift towards less expansionary monetary policy. In contrast to the duration, the extent of last year’s setback (down cumulatively by 7.3 points) was fairly moderate in a historical perspective. Thus the index had actually marked an historic low of 83.5 in March 2009 in the wake of the Lehman collapse and then climbed to an all-time peak of 114.4 in December 2010. The massive oil price decline and extensive weakening of the euro since mid-2014, although curtailed during Q2, remain important supportive factors for German companies. Ifo index developments since November 2014 still convey a stronger impression than the ZEW survey and the PMI data, which have suffered relatively larger setbacks recently (although PMI actually rebounded in June).

 

The Ifo survey component reflecting six-month expectations weakened for the third consecutive month from 103.0 to 102.0, returning to the January level. Note that this level still exceeds its long-term average of 100.2. The expectations sub-index had already deteriorated in the wake of a 35-month high of 108.2 in January 2014 (itself the culmination point of a 16-month rebound begun at 94.5 in October 2012), but it had enjoyed a five-month interim recovery between November 2014 and March. For comparison, the Lehman related all-time low had been massively lower at 78.6 in December 2008. Meanwhile, the current conditions component also declined in June, slipping from May’s 11-month high of 114.3 to 113.1. It should be kept in mind that the interim April-October 2014 downward correction to eventually 108.2 never undercut the interim trough of 106.6 in December 2012, not to speak of the long-term average of currently 102.7. At any rate, the current conditions component remains fairly close to its March 2014 two-year high of 115.3. The all-time high of 122.0 seen in June 2011 remains out of reach for now, however, given the ongoing restraining influence exerted by uncertainty surrounding a potential Greek default and/or Grexit.

 

Today’s separate Ifo survey release about the climate in the service sector – a series available since January 2005 – portrayed a much more positive picture than the main Ifo business climate data, corroborating the recent departure from a sideways tendency to the upside. The headline services index extended May’s rebound, increasing from 26.1 to a near-four-year high of 27.1. This was exclusively driven by the expectations component, which increased from 14.9 to 18.3 and thus almost returned to interim highs seen around the turn of the year 2014/15 (long-term average is 10.3). By contrast, current conditions slipped modestly from an all-time high of 37.8 to 36.3, remaining well above their long-term average of 21.8. Overall service-sector confidence had followed a sideways tendency between mid-2012 and November 2013 before breaking out to the upside around the turn of the year 2013/14 and then establishing another sideways trend at a new elevated level for a year. During more than ten years of history of this service sector series, expectations have fluctuated between -25.1 (December 2008) and 25.9 (November 2010), and current conditions between -13.2 (May 2009) and 37.8 (May 2015).

 

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the main Ifo survey by sector, relating to goods production and trade, reveals that most of the downward pressure came from manufacturing and wholesale trade, whereas the retail trade component softened to a lesser extent (after a sharp bounce in May) and the climate in construction improved against the overall trend. In manufacturing, the assessment of current conditions corrected from May’s interim one-year peak and expectations posted their third consecutive month of deterioration. The Ifo report made no mention of export prospects this month. Wholesale trade, which had already posted the weakest performance in May, worsened further due to expectations alone – these have now fully unwound April’s surge. Current conditions in the wholesale sector have stabilized after recent slippage. The dip in the retail sector was mostly due to current conditions. The level of the retail sub-index remains broadly in line with extremely favourable conditions for consumers. The increase in construction owed to expectations alone, whereas current conditions corrected slightly but still remained close to one-year highs. Furthermore, current construction sector conditions are at historically elevated levels that exceed those seen during a near-20-year period between 1992 and 2010.

 

Overall, the June Ifo business climate report apparently reflects heightened Greece related uncertainty but should not be read as the beginning of a pronounced economic downturn. The burdening factors weighing on business confidence for most of 2014 – notably the uncertainty created by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Ukraine and the Middle East and the inability of the Eurozone as a whole to embark on a meaningful economic recovery path – have receded in importance and partly been reversed, whereas the supportive influence from major oil price and euro declines and extremely low interest rates remains largely intact. Any tensions related to the Greek situation are thus acting as a restraint to currently achievable German growth momentum, but they are not seriously endangering Germany’s upswing as such. German GDP growth is expected to fluctuate around the 2% mark in annualized terms during the coming quarters.

 

The latest IHS forecast for annual average GDP growth in 2015 is 1.8%, up from 1.6% in 2014. This refers to calendar-adjusted data – the 2015 forecast in non-adjusted terms is in fact even 2.0%. German consumer demand has been growing at a pace of around 0.7% q/q since mid-2014 and should broadly maintain this momentum during the remainder of 2015. This is being fuelled by high nominal and – given near-zero inflation – real wage growth, ongoing employment gains, and extremely low interest rates that discourage saving. Our current GDP growth forecast for 2016 is 2.2%, which translates to 2.3% in non-adjusted terms.

Von Timo Klein Dipl. Volkswirt/Senior Economist