WIESBADEN (13.2.15) – Die deutsche Wirtschaft hat zum Jahresende 2014 wieder Fahrt aufgenommen: Um 0,7 % war das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) im vierten Quartal 2014 – preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt – höher als im dritten Quartal 2014. Die konjunkturelle Lage hat sich nach dem schwungvollen Jahresauftakt (+ 0,8 % im ersten Quartal) und der Schwächephase im Sommer (– 0,1 % im zweiten und + 0,1 % im dritten Quartal) zum Ende des Jahres stabilisiert. Für das gesamte Jahr 2014 ergibt sich daraus ein Anstieg von + 1,6 % (auch kalenderbereinigt), der sogar noch etwas höher ausfällt als das im Januar veröffentlichte vorläufige Ergebnis, teilt das Statistische Bundesamt (Destatis) weiter mit. 

Positive Impulse kamen im Vorquartalsvergleich (preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt) hauptsächlich aus dem Inland: Vor allem die privaten Haushalte steigerten ihre Konsumausgaben noch einmal merklich. Darüber hinaus entwickelten sich auch die Anlageinvestitionen positiv: Neben Ausrüstungen wurde insbesondere in Bauten deutlich mehr investiert als im dritten Quartal 2014. Auch die Exporte von Waren und Dienstleistungen legten den vorläufigen Berechnungen zufolge nochmals kräftig zu; allerdings erhöhten sich die Importe in ähnlicher Größenordnung.

Im Vorjahresvergleich hat sich das Wirtschaftswachstum seit dem Sommer etwas beschleunigt: Das preisbereinigte BIP stieg im vierten Quartal 2014 um + 1,6 %, nach + 1,2 % im dritten Quartal 2014 und + 1,0 % im zweiten Quartal 2014.

Der sogenannte statistische Überhang des Jahres 2014 beträgt + 0,5 %. Dabei handelt es sich um die Veränderungsrate des BIP, die sich für das Jahr 2015 ergäbe, wenn das saison- und kalenderbereinigte BIP im gesamten Jahr auf dem Niveau des vierten Quartals 2014 verbleiben würde.

Die Wirtschaftsleistung im vierten Quartal 2014 wurde von 43,0 Millionen Erwerbstätigen erbracht, das waren 412 000 Personen oder 1,0 % mehr als ein Jahr zuvor.

Neben der Erstberechnung des vierten Quartals 2014 hat das Statistische Bundesamt auch die bisher veröffentlichten Ergebnisse der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen für die ersten drei Quartale 2014 sowie für das Jahr 2014 überarbeitet. Dabei ergaben sich für die Veränderungsraten des preisbereinigten Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den ersten drei Quartalen keine Korrekturen; lediglich für das Jahr 2014 wurde die Wachstumsrate um 0,1 Prozentpunkte nach oben revidiert.

 

IHS Global: German GDP growth roars back in Q4 as domestic demand fires on all cylinders

 

Frankfurt/Main (13.2.15) – Based on “flash” data released by the Federal Statistics Office (FSO), German GDP increased 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) during the fourth quarter of 2014, a stunningly strong result that beat all expectations. This follows (virtually unrevised) changes of 0.8% q/q in Q1, -0.1% q/q in Q2 and 0.1% q/q in Q3, confirming that the German economy has rebounded convincingly from an interim phase of stagnation around mid-2014. Growth in 2014 as a whole has consequently been revised upwards to 1.6% from 1.5% published as „flash“ data in mid-January. The overhang effect, i.e. the hypothetical growth rate obtained for 2015 if GDP were to remain constant throughout 2015 at the level reached in Q4 2014, is a robust 0.5%. January’s 1.6% IHS forecast for growth in 2015 – already on the optimistic side of a consensus that was around 1.3% – will thus need to be revised upward to the 2% area.

The robust recovery with an average growth pace of 0.6% q/q that had been observed between the second quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 has therefore been resumed after an only brief interruption caused mainly by the uncertainty caused by the Ukraine crisis. Based on the same calendar and seasonally adjusted series, the year-on-year rate, which had weakened from an interim peak of 2.3% y/y in Q1 2014 before slipping to 1.2% in Q3, has now rebounded to 1.5% in Q4. Unadjusted for calendar factors, there has been a decline from 2.6% in Q1 to 1.0% in Q2 2014, followed by a rebound to 1.2% in Q3 and 1.6% in Q4. Note that for 2014 as a whole there is virtually no calendar effect that would cause discrepancies between working-day- and non-working-day-adjusted data. This contrasts with the period 2011-2013, when calendar effects had exerted a dampening effect relative to adjusted growth of between 0.1% and 0.2% in each of those years, and also to 2015, when there will conversely be a boosting effect of 0.25%.

Today’s “flash” release for the fourth quarter as usual encompassed only data for the overall GDP aggregate and not the individual components. The latter will only be made available on 24 February. The Federal Statistics Office (FSO) as the releasing agency has nonetheless provided some important guidance in qualitative form. Domestic demand was clearly the driving force, with all key components contributing. The FSO states that private consumption increased even more strongly than in Q3, when it grew 0.7% q/q. This is only a mild surprise in view of the oil price slide that gave purchasing power another shot in the arm, coming on top of ongoing good labour market conditions, nominal wage increases exceeding 3%, and a general softening tendency for inflation. By contrast, accompanying solid increases in investment were unexpected, affecting not only investment in equipment but also construction investment. Notwithstanding pent-up building demand and ever more favorable financing conditions, monthly data about construction orders and output had actually disappointed in recent months. Meanwhile, investment in equipment, which had suffered back-to-back corrective declines in Q2 and Q3 2014 due to the unsettling effect of various geopolitical crises (notably Ukraine/Russia and IS aggression in Iraq/Syria), has apparently resumed the upward path already followed during the four quarters ending in Q1 2014. This also indicates that the overall economic situation in the Eurozone at large was better in late 2014 than commonly perceived. Such an impression is corroborated by strengthening external trade data. As already indicated by monthly customs trade numbers, export volumes have recovered in fairly robust fashion in recent months. However, as real imports have apparently grown to a similar extent, this presumably translates to only a small net export contribution to quarterly GDP growth, based on export levels being significantly higher than import levels in a situation with high trade surpluses. Nevertheless, rising momentum of German external trade flows is remarkable given still restrained global trade growth stemming from geopolitical uncertainties and lingering problems in major emerging economies such as Brazil or even China, and also in view of the fact that the weakening of the euro during the second half of 2014 will only impact fully during 2015.

Overall, fourth-quarter GDP data represents impressive evidence of the underlying robustness of the German economy. Leading indicators (PMI, Ifo, ZEW) have been rebounding in recent months, although notably PMI not to an extent that would have suggested such a strong GDP performance in late 2014. Overall, it can be said that the combined boosting influence of falling oil prices, an increasingly competitive euro, and robust US growth on the German economy has been underestimated. The concentration of the media on geopolitical risks during 2014 (Ukraine; Islamist terrorism) appears to have hidden to some extent the substantial improvement of key fundamental factors for consumption and investment decisions. Against this background, the recent ECB decision to start quantitative easing, i.e. purchasing government bonds in order to head off deflation risks, could well turn out to have been superfluous. Germany exports and imports will both pick up markedly in 2015 relative to 2014, as exports benefit from strengthening global trade and concurrent euro depreciation alongside largely undiminished competitiveness, while imports are increasingly boosted by newly rebounding domestic demand. Net exports should on balance be either neutral or even deliver a small contribution to GDP growth in 2015. Domestically, with German interest rates remaining at unheard-of historical lows, the German consumer enjoying high real income growth, and growing international pressure on the German government to do more for infrastructure investment, there is little to stop a strengthening recovery. Even a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone – noting that, as before, this is not our baseline scenario – would not now derail this economic upswing.

Prior to today’s Q4 GDP data, IHS had intended to raise the German real GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 1.6% to 1.7%, but a further upward adjustment to 2.0% is now unavoidable. Indeed, adding the calendar factor of additional working days, this actually translates to 2.3%, far above the latest official forecast of 1.5% (based on such unadjusted data) that has been released by the German government only two days ago.

Von Timo Klein Dipl. Volkswirt / Senior Economist