ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland: Im Mai  minimal gesunken

München (22.5.15) – Der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft Deutschlands ist im Mai geringfügig auf 108,5 Punkte gesunken, von 108,6 im Vormonat. Die Unternehmen waren erneut zufriedener mit ihrer aktuellen Lage. Mit Blick auf die kommenden Monate nahmen sie den Optimismus jedoch etwas zurück. Die deutsche Wirtschaft bleibt auf Kurs.

Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe hat der Klimaindikator nach sechs Anstiegen in Folge erstmals wieder etwas nachgegeben. Dies ist auf die etwas weniger optimistischen Erwartungen vor allem in Bezug auf den Export zurückzuführen. Die Lageeinschätzungen kletterten dagegen auf den höchsten Stand seit einem Jahr.

Im Großhandel verschlechterte sich das Geschäftsklima. Die Großhändler beurteilten sowohl ihre aktuelle Lage als auch ihre Erwartungen für die kommenden Monate etwas weniger positiv. Im Einzelhandel ist der Klimaindikator auf den höchsten Wert seit Juni 2014 gestiegen. Die Einschätzungen zur aktuellen Lage verbesserten sich merklich. Auch die Aussichten für die kommenden Monate hellten sich auf.

Im Bauhauptgewerbe hat sich das Geschäftsklima erneut verbessert. Die Baufirmen waren etwas zufriedener mit ihrer aktuellen Lage, während die Erwartungen unverändert blieben.

Quelle: Ifo

German Ifo business climate index broadly steady in May as improving current conditions offset slipping expectations

 

 Frankfurt/Main (22.5.15) – In May, the headline Ifo business climate index reflecting conditions in industry, construction, and wholesale and retail trade slipped marginally from 108.6 to 108.5, interrupting a six-month upward tendency. As in April, the current conditions component had a boosting impact whereas expectations corrected downwards, in both cases fairly modestly. The overall index level of 108.5 continues to significantly exceed the long-term average of 101.4 and remains close to its February 2014 interim high of 110.9 (in turn a level last exceeded in mid-2011).

The downward correction of 2014 had been of a fairly sustained nature due to the concurrence of ongoing geopolitical concerns, especially about Ukraine/Russia and the IS threat in Iraq and Syria, and emerging market problems related to the US Fed’s shift towards less expansionary monetary policy. In contrast to the duration, the extent of last year’s setback (down from 110.9 in February to 103.6 in October) was fairly moderate in a historical perspective. Thus the index had marked an historic low of 83.5 in March 2009 in the wake of the Lehman collapse and then climbed to an all-time peak of 114.2 in November/December 2010. The massive oil price decline and extensive weakening of the euro since mid-2014, although curtailed in April/May, remain important supportive factors for German companies. The Ifo index rebound since November 2014 now conveys a stronger impression than the ZEW survey and the PMI data, which have both suffered setbacks during April/May.

The Ifo survey component reflecting six-month expectations weakened slightly for the second consecutive month from 103.4 to 103.0. Nevertheless, this level still clearly exceeds its long-term average of 100.2. Prior to the downturn lasting throughout most of 2014, the expectations sub-index had hit a 35-month high of 108.2 in January 2014 that represented the culmination point of a 16-month rebound from 94.5 in October 2012 (then the lowest level in more than three years). For comparison, the Lehman related all-time low had been much lower yet at 78.5 in December 2008. Meanwhile, the current conditions component increased anew from 114.0 to an 11-month high of 114.3. It should be kept in mind that the April-October 2014 downward correction to eventually 108.2 never undercut the interim trough of 106.5 in December 2012, not to speak of the long-term average of currently 102.7. The current conditions component continues to aim for the March 2014 two-year high of 115.3, whereas the all-time high of 122.3 seen in June 2011 will remain out of reach for now due to the ongoing restraining influence exerted by uncertainty surrounding a potential Greek default.

Today’s separate Ifo survey release about the climate in the service sector – a series available since January 2005 – is even more encouraging than the main Ifo business climate data, tentatively parting with their recent sideways tendency. The headline services index rebounded from 22.9 to 25.8, only narrowly missing its December 2014 interim high of 26.1 (then second-highest level since mid-2011). The improvement in May owed particularly to the expectations component, which unwound April’s decline and rebounded from a five-month low of 11.0 to 14.9. That said, current conditions also improved from 35.3 to an 11-month high of 37.3 that exceeds its long-term average of 21.7 by far. The service-sector expectations level of 14.9 compares to a long-term average of 10.2. Overall service-sector confidence had followed a sideways tendency between mid-2012 and November 2013 before breaking out to the upside around the turn of the year 2013/14 and then establishing another sideways trend at a new elevated level. The current May data may presage a renewed move to a higher level. During more than ten years of history of this service sector series, expectations have fluctuated between -24.6 (December 2008) and 25.9 (November 2010), and current conditions between -13.7 (May 2009) and 38.0 (June 2014).

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the main Ifo survey by sector, relating to goods production and trade, reveals slight slippage in manufacturing and a somewhat larger decline for wholesale trade, whereas the climate in construction edged up and in retail trade bounced sharply. The latter is reassuring, as this puts the retail sub-index back in line with extremely favourable conditions for consumers. In addition, this rebound was supported by current conditions and expectations alike. The increase in construction owed to current conditions alone, whereas expectations were unchanged. Current conditions had been at a four-year low in March but they have improved considerably during the last two months, at any rate being historically quite elevated compared to the near-20-year period 1992-2010. In manufacturing, the assessment of current conditions improved to their best level in a year, whereas expectations deteriorated modestly, apparently due to less optimistic views about export prospects. Finally, wholesale trade was the weakest sector in May, correcting for April’s above-average performance to a one-year high. Current conditions slipped for the second month in a row, while expectations shed about half of the previous month’s surge.

Overall, the May Ifo business climate report remains encouraging for the near-term outlook for the German economy. The burdening factors weighing on business confidence for most of 2014 – notably the uncertainty created by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Ukraine and the Middle East and the inability of the Eurozone as a whole to embark on a meaningful economic recovery path – have receded in importance and partly been reversed, whereas the supportive influence from major oil price and euro declines and extremely low interest rates remains largely intact. Any tensions related to the Greek situation may be acting as a restraint but are not seriously impairing Germany’s economic prospects. German GDP growth is expected to fluctuate around the 2% mark in annualized terms during the coming quarters.

The latest IHS forecast for annual average GDP growth in 2015 is 1.8%, up from 1.6% in 2014. This refers to calendar-adjusted data – the 2015 forecast in non-adjusted terms is in fact even 2.0%. German consumer demand has been growing at a pace of around 0.7% q/q since mid-2014 and should broadly maintain this momentum during the remainder of 2015. This is being fuelled by high nominal and – given near-zero inflation – real wage growth, ongoing employment gains, and extremely low interest rates that discourage saving. Our current GDP growth forecast for 2016 is 2.2%, which translates to 2.3% in non-adjusted terms.

Timo Klein, Dipl. Volkswirt / Senior Economist / IHS Global